Movie Blockbusters Predicted By Online WOM?
We all know that many music, games and movie companies have been trying to deny the internet revolution for years. After a period of denial, they tried to battle the disruptive force internet by putting their lawyers in action, but this was mission impossible too. Now it seems that many entertainment companies are embracing the internet…
Word of mouth campaigns have occasionally played an important role in the marketing of new entertainment and media (movies, music, books and games), but research to establish the major drivers of success has produced mixed results.
As a result, social media spend and monitoring is still a relatively small portion of the overall entertainment media spend.
However, a recent research paper by Dellarocas, Zhang and Awad, has used different analytical techniques to demonstrate that – among other factors like box office revenue, marketing budget and star power – a movie’s early word of mouth (quantified as volume of online movie reviews, tone of review and the gender mix of online reviewers over the first few days of a movie’s release) has a significant impact on forecast movie revenues.
As you might expect, more positive reviews are associated with higher revenues. In addition, however, a greater total volume of reviews (regardless of tone) and a greater diversity of reviewer genders are also associated with higher predicted revenues. Without this online metric data, the accuracy of projections declines by over 1/3.
Another interesting finding is that online review volume, tone and gender are especially good at predicting the expected performance of so-called “sleeper” movies, i.e. movies with initial release on only a limited number of theater screens. Since the majority of movies aren’t blockbusters like Spiderman and fall into this category, the value of online metric tracking is high.
So what’s this all mean?
For movie exhibitors, movie marketing companies and rental companies like Netflix and Blockbuster, this research supports the use of online word of mouth tracking to significantly improve inventory, marketing and merchandising decisions.
What’s most exciting, Irfan Kamal of Ogilvy PR Worldwide says, I’d guess that:
(1) this model should apply not only to movies, but to many products and services that have similar launch patterns – including new books, music and games;
(2) creatively dialing up the volume of word of mouth could produce better gains than dialing up other types of marketing spend typically used for new movie marketing; and
(3) starting online conversations across a variety of demographic groups may be a better strategy than targeting just one group; and
(4) Occasionally, building on highly polarized discussions (i.e. both highly positive and highly negative) to increase conversation volume may be an effective marketing tool
Bad example? Check out Sony PS3
We have seen the arrogance of Sony being slaughtered by the PS3 song how you killed your brand. I’m convinced Sony is now running conversational tracking and brand ambassadors programs that help Sony listen to digital dictators to improve their products, before they fire another flight of GRP’s. Yes Sir, digital dictators force brands to listen and to live up to the promises they make in TV commercials.
And I’m convinced no traditional advertising or media agency is going to be of much help to brands, in building listening or fan programs. Why not? Since advertising agencies are only interested in winning the yearly award for best TV spot. They don’t care at all about helping to create ‘a to die for brand’. And most CMO’s seem to share that idea…
Modern marketing is not only pushing shouting commercials shouting: buy my product, it’s the best available. So eventually brands will learn the hard way to live up to their brand promises they made in campaigns. And that is good for consumers.
Good example of conversational tracking, WOM or relational marketing is Honda moving up the Advocacy Top10
Another good example of a brand listening to its consumers and creating a video dialogue is EA Sports with the Tiger Woods Walk On Water video.
I’m convinced that 90% of all brands will have their own conversational tracking program within now and 2 years, or even much sooner. I hope they do, since I believe it’s innovate or die. Digital consumers are dictators and brands better listen fast. CMO’s that think they can survive with monologues only, sorry I have bad news for you: you need to be aware consumers are talking about your brand, without you even knowing what they are saying about you. Tap into the gossip and learn…
Also I feel that CMO’s need to understand fast, that they need to know what consumers are saying about their brands, products, services, service, helpdesk, stores, websites and more. No CMO can afford NOT to know, what consumers are saying to each other in forums, review sites and social networks! How should CMO’s act upon digital dictators in your opinion?
Source: 360 Digital Influence
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[...] Movie Blockbusters Predicted By Online WOM? – ViralBlog artigo bem bacana dos apocalípticos: o sucesso dos filmes já é previsto pelo boca-a-ouvido, o Word-of-mouth. E toda marca e toda agência deveria verificar o buzz, e ver o que estão causando pra seus clientes, ao invés de se preocupar com prêmios (tags: wom advertising future) [...]
Very interesting! This is just more prove of what a lot of use have been saying for some time now.
On a side note, your timing with this could not have been better – this research will fit nicely into my own research for my dissertation!
@ Daan
Yes I think brands forget that most consumers are interactive and that brands should be too…
Just let us know what you need, we do conversational tracking programs for many large brands.
Cheers
Nice post, Igor. I think it all starts with listening. And a conversational tracking program will do just that. I certainly think a lot of brands will start listening, but “90% of all brands”?
I think that’ll take at least 5 years, and I’m being optimistic here. At first we need all brands to start doing online advertising seriously. And untill that figure doesn’t mark 90% or more, most brands won’t listen the way they should do.
@ Eduard,
Thanks. You could be right, maybe the 2 years is just wishful thinking. It could be 5 also. Maybe even 10 and maybe 90% will never be made…
But I feel sorry for the brands that discover the power of listening too late..
By the way, I just saw this URL in a Ziggo TV ad: http://www.ziggo.nl/panel
Seem they’ve seen campaigns and promises are not enough.
Cheers
Igor
@ Eduard
Thanks. You could be right. It might take 5 years or more. And it might not be 90%.
But I feel sorry for brands that don’t start listening soon: might be too late for some eventually.
Consumers are becoming reluctant to pretty promises that are not being delivered.
Consumers are pretty interactive, maybe brands should be too..
I saw this url: http://www.ziggo.nl/panel in a TV commercial last nite.. Maybe Ziggo has discovered listening?
Cheers
@ Eduard
Thanks. You are probably right: it might take 5 years or more. And maybe we never get to 90%….
But I fear for the brands that don’t start listening soon.
Last night I saw this URL in a TV commercial of Ziggo: wwww.ziggo.nl/panel Seems they are looking for a panel of 20.000 users
Cheers
Igor
@Igor
I agree, I also fear for brands that don’t start listening in a way that suits the changed world of today