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21/06/2009 by

Facebook 2012: My Future Vision On Facebook

With its tremendous growth, Facebook has achieved 200 Million active users. This makes Facebook the number 6 most populated country in the world. Will Facebook go broke because of its business model? Or will it keep growing at speed of light? See my future vision on Facebook, how will it look in 2012


To start with my vision on Facebook’s business model. Off course I know its business model has been criticized more than often. I think, the Facebook founders have simply decided not to monetize traditional online brand advertising.

It chose to exploit its platform with a long term vision, and it could switch at each and any moment. So let’s assume Facebook is here to stay for another while.

Let’s take a further look on the internet and mobile phone penetration towards 2012. As you will understand, it will be an important benchmark to forecast the future of Facebook in 2012.

Now, nearly a quarter of the world’s population – roughly 1.5 Billion people – use the Internet on a regular basis. This number is expected to surpass 2 Billion unique users, or 30% of the world’s population, in 2012, is the estimation of the largest research firms.

With extreme fast mobile growth in markets like India and China, the global mobile phone penetration is expected to be around 4.5 Billion people in 2012.

And most mobile phones will switch from analogue to digital. Everywhere in the world there will be fast 3G networks which will offer fast mobile internet. Next years we’ll see more super sophisticated handsets, since all mobile vendors will copy the iPhone. Mobile phones will become full computers.

Next the mobile internet usage will also be pushed by better mobile content and application developers. They will be enabled by software development toolkits, like we now already see with the tremendous explosion of iPhone apps.


So it might be safe to conclude that by 2012 over 50% of the 4.5 Billion mobile users will access their mobile internet several times a day. So let’s just assume a round number: by 2012 about 2.25 Billion people will use internet at their mobile phone.

So if I mash-up all these trends and forecasts I come to the conclusion that Facebook will have 500 Million active users by 2012 for sure. Or many more.

I also think that over 50% of Facebook’s daily visits in 2012 will come from a mobile phone. This might even be 10% to 15% higher if people get used to “snack” frequently from Facebook from their mobile phones.

I also think that “screenagers” in i.e. the US and Asia will do 25 daily visits to Facebook by 2012. Some high burners might even visit Facebook 50 times a day, from their PC, Notebook or mobile computer.

Next I think that 60% of “the duration of stay” at Facebook by 2012 will come from a PC or Notebook, since they will have bigger screens and offer faster internet connections than the mobile phone. It might even be 70%, that the time spent on Facebook in 2012 will come from a computer at work or home.

I do not dare to say something about the number of daily or monthly page views on Facebook by 2012, simply because I don’t know what comes after “gazillion” 😉

And if you ask me, Facebook will have more active users by 2012 than 500 Million. It would not even surprise me if this blue monster would hit 900 Million to 1 Billion by 2012. And when they do, they might IPO soon after as well…

Well, guys, please share us your vision on Facebook by 2012. Or let´s connect in 3.5 years, to see how wrong or right I was…


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Igor Beuker
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